UK scientists improve osteoporotic fracture diagnosis

Scientists at the University of Nottingham have developed two new risk scores that should help to identify patients who are likely to suffer a fracture as a result of the bone-thinning disease osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis occurs when bone cells are lost, weakening the overall structure and making it more susceptible to fracture.

Around 70,000 hip, 120,000 spine and 50,000 wrist fractures occur each year as a result of osteoporosis, which is particularly common in women who have gone through menopause and have low levels of the female sex hormone oestrogen which keeps bones strong.

Julia Hippisley-Cox, professor of clinical epidemiology and general practice at the University of Nottingham, and Carol Coupland, associate professor in medical statistics, set out to develop new fracture risk algorithms that could be used to estimate a person's risk of having an osteoporotic fracture over the next ten years.

They followed over two million healthy men and women over a 15-year period, all of whom were aged between 30 and 85 at the start of the study.

The risk scores that they developed - QFractureScores - may be better than existing algorithms because they take into account a greater number of potential risk factors, including falls, type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and use of hormone replacement therapy.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, the researchers suggested that the QFractureScores may provide more accurate risk estimates of people's fracture risk, which in turn could enable doctors to prescribe preventative treatments to those patients who are particularly at risk.

They concluded: "These new algorithms can predict risk of fracture in primary care populations in the UK without laboratory measurements and are therefore suitable for use in both clinical settings and for self-assessment.

"QFractureScores could be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture who might benefit from interventions to reduce their risk."

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